The trade still frustrates me. I think you're right that the value of a "proven QB coming into his prime" comes is probably closer to Cutler's value than what Cassel fetched.
1) Both players had their first and only pro bowl seasons in 2008.
2) Cutler's lifetime passer rating over three seasons (5 starts in 2006, 16 in 2007 and 16 in 2008) averages out to about an 88, with last season being his worst (albeit not statistically significant) at 86.0. 88's a solid but not great average. If we look solely at ratings, and believe Cutler won't improve significantly, we have a solid but not franchise quarterback. Yes, he threw for a ridiculous 4,500 yards last year but that was a function of a better offense than he'll have in Chicago, as well as a defense that wasted no time giving up points (28 per game, third worst--even worse than Kansas City), forcing the Broncos to rely more on the pass. Drew Brees he ain't.
3) By comparison, while Matt Cassell's 89.4 rating isn't significantly different (only 3700 yards passing but again the Patriots' defense wasn't a scythe, so Belichick didn't need to air it out as much), I can only give so much credence to the term "proven"--certainly not two first-round picks versus one second-rounder.
I find it depressing that a guy like Cutler yielded so much value in a trade. At the end of the day, it's an anomaly so I suppose it can be left at that. Although if anyone would like Derek Anderson, Browns "stud" QB, he can be had for two first-rounders. Anyone? Bueller?
Modifying the USTs makes sense, although I'd like to create sub-rules under this category to make things more confusing. So here we go:
1) Avoid mediocrity, inasmuch as it can be avoided - Nobody likes losers, everybody hates teams that get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs on a yearly basis.
Sub-Rule 1a) - The PJ Carlesimo Coach Corollary - don't hire mediocre coaches or fluke coaches.
Sub-Rule 1b) - The Phil Jackson Coach Corollary - hire only multiple-championship legends (unlikely) or take risks on supergenius assistants. Roll the dice.
2) The Jack Haley Rule - If you're going to acquire psychologically-risky players, you better get some backup.
On another note, NBA Playoffs begin this Saturday. Mike, let's make a gentleman's bet. Fill out a bracket, as will I, predicting a) the winner of each round and b) the number of games it takes (no credit for b) if you pick the right number of games but the wrong team). I have the horrible sense that there's not much more logic to NBA Playoff brackets than there is to the NCAA brackets--so here's the chance to prove it.
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