Yeah it's still only one game

(And in the case of the Celtics-Bulls and Mavericks-Spurs, two.)  I'm not ready to give a pass to the Hawks as a tough opponent just because they beat up on (why isn't this said more?) what is effectively a one-man team in the Heat with Wade.  I imagine this series will predictably go to the home teams until game 7, which is when Wade makes the difference.

And don't underestimate the Celtics.  While the Magic's complete collapse (18-point lead at home?  win the game!) agains the 76ers is rooted in the Magic's history of underperformance (pre- and post-McGrady) in the playoffs, the Celtics demonstrated last year that they tend not to really care until someone makes them care.  The Bulls shouldn't have had a 5-point lead with 2:54 left in last night's game in Boston, but then again the Celtics at some point (collective consciousness theory here) realized that hey, we need to win this or we'll be down 2-0.

I suspect the Celtics-Magic series will be challenging because you have a team that doesn't initially care (Celtics) against a team without a proven winner (Magic), but the Celtics will use that heart to pull it out, and bring an interesting matchup against the Cavs in the Eastern Finals.

I also suspect Garnett will play in the Eastern Finals.  This seems too contrived, like Pierce's "injury" last year that required him to be carried off the court, put in a wheelchair, only to play three minutes later.  Garnett will romantically be likened to Willis Reed, the Boston media will eat it up, and the Cavs' biggest Eastern challenge will come from the "truly inspired" Celtics in a "feel-good" story.  Makes me kind of sick.

The other thing about not paying attention to the first game of a playoff series--and I think this should be directed at each of the Hawks, Bulls, 76ers, Mavericks and Rockets (only the Mavericks I picked to actually win the series)--is what I call the Allen Iverson Theory of Game Ones.  In Iverson's lone appearance in the finals in 2001 against the Spurs, the 76ers pulled out a fantastic win in game 1, an inspirational overtime win.  After the win, Iverson gave a press conference saying how much he felt the 76ers were disrespected, and how the 76ers were there to win, and could pull it out.

The Spurs then swept the next four games.  Whoops.