Thursday, April 16, 2009

You want issues? You got issues.

(Yes, I'm aware I need to work on post titles.  This blog is like a sitcom...I hope it'll get better (before it gets cancelled)).

I honestly don't think the Spurs are much of a plot this year.  Their dyNasty arguably ended when they fell in the playoffs quietly last year to the Lakers.  Here you just have a Ginobili injury, and at that it's probably because he wore himself out in the Olympics.  Give them time.  The Spurs will be back. 

Love the Blazers though.  Who doesn't?  Although I have my doubts--and wonder if they'll end up being the Bulls of the West (bunch of young kids who are high draft picks with potential, but it never pans out)--it's the "youngest team" syndrome: people are fascinated by teams that haven't been there before.  Plus I think they'll make the second round (playoff preview hint).

So my top 3 non-Garnett storylines are coming soon.  Before that, quick tangent--Garnett isn't "officially" out yet, is he?  To me it sounds like the day progressed oddly--first, you hear about Doc Rivers saying Garnett isn't ready and he might not be ready this playoffs.  Then there are reports saying there's a "strong possibility" Garnett's not playing.  By 3pm Eastern, blogs everywhere are reporting he's out--for sure--for the playoffs.  Seems odd to me.  Ok, storylines:

1)  Orlando -- are they really different?  The Garnett thing is relevant because now the Team That Was Dismissed in favor of a Cavs-Celtics rematch now has a very legitimate shot at taking out the defending champs and giving the Cavs more than a scare in the Conference Finals.  Why hasn't this been discussed more yet?  Am I missing something?  The team almost won 60 games, without Jameer Nelson!  Amazing.

2)  Will the Lakers quit again?  I want a refund for Game 6 of the Finals last year, where the Lakers lost--in Los Angeles!--to a (fine, use the word "hungry" and "veterans" in the same sentence if you must) Celtics team by 39!!!!!!  And didn't really seem to care.  It's been stressed before that this loss demonstrates Kobe doesn't have Jordan's heart because there's no way, in those circumstances, Jordan would let his team lose.  But that's not the point to me.  The point is that this is essentially the same cast--and while, yes, Bynum's back, he's not a guy who has proven he's going to take over anything except the injured list--and they remember that loss.  I would.  Now, how they respond is the question.  They're going to have a game like that, and how they respond (if they have a chance to respond) is more likely to define Kobe's legacy than anything.

3)  I'm tempted to go with LeBron, but in my mind it's just too obvious (and honestly, that could well be the storyline every year until he gets old/goes bad, hopefully a long time from now).  So let's go with Pressure to Perform.  The way I see it there are three teams (other than Orlando) that really have to prove they can go to the Next Level--or there's a major risk of a huge overhaul.  Shockingly, they're all in the West:  Denver, Dallas and Houston.  Denver and Melo haven't gone anywhere.  They've been gifted with the #2 seed, but the Hornets (even with Chandler and Peja not at 100%, if they even play the whole series) there's a serious upset risk.  Billups has led the team in the right direction, but Melo hasn't gotten out of the first round yet.  Dallas came far too close and went from a deep, talented team to a team that's aging quickly, despite Dirk having a quiet/solid year.  And then Houston hasn't been able to get out of the first round since Hakeem left for Toronto/retirement.  Yao does his thing but it's never enough, and although they had an outside shot at a top-3 seed, now they find themselves without home court against a hungry team.  How many first round exits can a team endure?

You can't look at these playoffs consequentially.  Yes, the finals will be the Cavs/Celtics/Magic against the Lakers and everyone else is playing for third place at best.  But there are enough up and coming teams (Chicago, Atlanta, Portland) and enough near-death teams (Denver, Dallas, Houston) to make things interesting.

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